CIR Draft Information

Monday, June 07, 2004

2004 Draft Preview

T-minus 4 hours until the draft.

You can listen to the draft online, starting at NOON (one-hour preview) at www.mlb.com. Once the draft starts at 1:00, the CIR website will be updated after every Indians pick so make sure to check the website frequently throughout the afternoon for the latest news. For the first time since 1999, this will be a "normal" draft for the Indians as they were not the beneficiary of free-agent compensation signings and, therefore, will not have multiple picks in the early rounds. The Tribe holds the sixth pick in each of the drafts 50 rounds.

What will be the Indians strategy and who will they select? It's tough to gauge because the Indians are considered to be a "balanced" organization in that they do not necessarily favor college players over high school players or vice versa. The one thing the Indians do believe in is selecting the best player available with their early picks which tends to leave the potential draft pool wide open. Why would the Tribe focus on the BPA instead of an organizational need, like third base, for example? Well, it's important to keep in mind that the MLB draft is vastly different from the NFL or NBA drafts in that 99% of the players selected in the next two days will not begin to sniff the major leagues until 2007 or 2008 (let alone make an impact) and an organization's needs could be very different in 2007 or 2008 than they are today. Drafting for need does occur in the MLB draft but it typically happens after the first 1-5 rounds as teams start stockpiling pitchers or specific positions to fill holes in the lower levels of their farm systems.

Note that last year, however, the Indians did move to fill an organizational need early when they popped catchers Javi Herrera and Ryan Garko in the second and third rounds respectively. Both have worked out well so far for the Tribe but that was likely a deviation from the best player available thinking. So what are the organizational needs entering this draft?

MIDDLE INFIELD: Beyond Brandon Phillips and Jhonny Peralta in Buffalo, the Tribe is noticably weak up the middle throughout the system. Ivan Ochoa in Kinston is the best of the rest and while he's a defensive whiz, his bat needs a lot of work.

OUTFIELD: The Tribe added Brad Snyder as an impact outfielder but missed on Ben Harrison when he chose to return to the University of Florida for his senior season. Ryan Goleski has been a surprise for Lake County but they could use an additional influx of outfield talent.

PITCHING: What's the old adage, you can never have enough pitching? I think the Indians have demonstrated that over the past twelve months as they've lost Billy Traber, Brian Tallet, Jason Stanford, Travis Foley, Mariano Gomez, Kyle Denney, Jake Dittler to various forms of injury (some more severe than others). The attrition (and injuries) that have slowed the ascent of the highly-acclaimed 2001 draft class is further indication that no amount of pitching is ever enough.

John Mirabelli has stated that the strength of this draft is college pitching and it would not surprise me to see the Indians go in that direction with their first couple of picks, or until that strength begins to thin out. His other stated draft strength is college catching but with Garko (likely more of a 1B/DH type) and Herrera in the lower
minors, I would think the Indians would have to really love a catcher to pop him in the first two or three rounds. Following that, it's the best player available, an attempt to fill some organizational needs in a high-level way, and then onto the DFEs, Fliers, and Organizationals.

One thing to consider is that the Indians draft budget is expected to once again be "aggresive" and allow the Indians to sign the best players available, regardless of bonus demands. Since they don't have the multiple picks as in years past, the overall budget should be less than in previous years, so it will be interesting to see if the Tribe uses this extra cash (my term, not theirs) to snag a high school player (or two) in the early rounds that may have higher than normal bonus demands due to a college commitment.

Following is a list of players the Indians will likely consider with their first pick. As you'll see, one name stands out among the rest and it's likely that we'll have a sower diposition around 1:15 PM this afternoon (not that that's a bad thing).

MATT BUSH, SS/P, San Diego HS: The Indians have been linked to Bush all spring but it now appears that he's headed to his hometown Padres with the number one overall pick. On the mound, Bush throws in the mid-90s but he's projected as a true shortstop at the major league level, which makes his selection somewhat surprising by the Padres considering they have rookie Khalil Greene as their current shortstop of the future.
Bush is reported to have a great glove, some concerns regarding his bat, and loves to play. He hit .400 with six homeruns and 10 steals as a senior this spring. Keep in mind that high school stats can vary wildly across the country depending on the talent level of the area (and the San Diego area is among the most competitive in the country).

STEPHEN DREW, SS, Florida State: The younger brother of Braves outfielder JD Drew and former Indians number one pick Tim Drew, Stephen Drew should make the Drew brothers the first threesome of bros to be drafted in the first round. Generally regarded as the premier college position player in the draft, Drew has been compared to Todd Walker, albeit a more athletic and defensively superior version. So, I guess, he's really not like Todd Walker then, huh? Anyway, Drew hit .353/.472/.716 with 17 homeruns, 45 walks, and 12 steals for the Seminoles this season. The Walker comparisons are mainly bat
projections but I'd hope you'd see more production from the premier college bat in the draft. Drew does have makeup concerns over how much he wants to play which are the same questions that have been asked about his older brother J.D. throughout his professional career. Drew is also represented by Scott Boras and is expected to command/demand a bonus equal to the top position player of the draft with the $3.6 million bonus and major league contract received by Rickie Weeks last year as an expected starting point, although Weeks is a superior prospect in my opinion. Drew would fit the Indians desired goal of finding an impact player or, rather, a position player who can reach the major leagues quickly, but I'd be surprised if he ends up being the Indians selection. Due to the expected bonus demands, Drew could go anywhere from the third pick overall to the mid or late first round.

PHIL HUMBER, RHP, Rice: The steadiest of the Rice threesome, Humber was 13-2 with a 1.80 ERA for the Owls this season with 141 strikeouts in 105 innings and just 71 hits and 33 pitches allowed. Humber has a fastball in the mid-90s but his curve serves as his strikeout pitch. He also mixes in a split change and has a good pitchers frame at 6'4", 210 pounds. Humber took the loss in both games at the Houston regional this weekend as Rice was eliminated from the College World Series although I don't think that's going to have much of an impact on his draft stock. Humber is expected to be taken somewhere in the first five picks but if he's available when the Indians are on the clock, he would be worthy of serious consideration in my opinion.

JEREMY SOWERS, LHP, Vanderbilt: No other player has been linked to the Indians at #6 more than Sowers. Baseball America has had the Indians selecting Sowers in each of their mock drafts and Peter Gammons consistently mentions how much the Indians love the southpaw. Sowers went 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts for the Commodores this season
with 107 strikeouts in 111 innings and just 93 hits and 21 walks allowed in leading Vanderbilt to its first college world series appearance in over 20 years. On Friday, Sowers punched out eleven and held George Mason to just one run and four hits as Vanderbilt won the opener of the Nashville regional which they went on to win over the weekend. He'll next start on Friday in Austin against the University of Texas. Sowers was also drafted out of high school in 2001 by the Reds with the #20 overall pick and it's possible that he could have been the Indians selection at #27 (which they eventually used on right-hander Alan Horne) if not for the Reds. He's generally regarded as the top left-hander in the draft, among the most polished pitchers in the draft, and one of the closest to being ready to pitch in the big leagues. Sowers throws 87-91 mph with a slider, curve, and change but is most highly regarded for his ability to throw strikes and his makeup. It's highly likely that we'll spend a good deal of time talking about Sowers later this afternoon.

NAMES TO REMEMBER: Rice right-handers Jeff Neimann and Wade Townsend are two big right-handers (Neimamm literally at 6'9") who are expected to go in the first 10 picks. Neimann has the better stuff but has battled injury problems (elbow and groin) the past twelve months. Homer Bailey is generally regarded as the best high school right-hander in the draft and he backs up that claim with 157 strikeouts in 66 innings this spring. Justin Verlander of Old Dominion may have the best pure stuff in the draft but struggles with putting it over the plate. I saw him last summer when Team USA came through the area and you could see the electric stuff but he was all over the place with the fastball. Chris Nelson is a high school shortstop who, along with Matt Bush, is regarded as the premier high school position player prospects. He has not been linked to the Indians as much as Bush (in fact, not at all as near as I can tell) but he's been compared to Derek Jeter and went to the same high school as Brandon Phillips. The D-Rays are reportedly interested in Nelson at #4. And finally, don't forget about Jered Weaver of Long Beach State who has completely dominated college hitters this spring (128 IP, 71 H, 18 BB, 193 K, 1.68 ERA). Until last week, it was assumed that he would be the number one pick by the Padres but his expected bonus demands (Boras factor and talks of "Prior" money) have served to move him down the draft boards to where he could go anywhere in the first round. Teams are also not convinced that the numbers match the stuff which make the bonus demands even more difficult to accept. Even though the Indians were the beneficiaries of a falling Boras client when they selected Jeremy Guthrie in 2002, it's highly unlikely that they'll select Weaver this year.
Posted on 6/07/2004

Listmania!

CLEVELAND INDIANS FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICKS
2003: Michael Aubrey, 1B, 11th overall
2003: Brad Snyder, OF, 18th overall (Jim Thome compensation)
2003: Adam Miller, RHP, 31st overall (Jim Thome compensation)
2002: Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, 22nd overall
2001: Dan Denham, RHP, 17th overall
2001: Alan Horne, RHP, 27th overall
2000: Corey Smith, SS, 26th overall
1999: Will Hartley, C, 74th overall (2nd round)
1998: C.C. Sabathia, LHP, 20th overall
1997: Tim Drew, RHP, 28th overall
1996: Danny Peoples, 1B, 28th overall
1995: David Miller, 1B, 23rd overall
1994: Jaret Wright, RHP, 10th overall
1993: Daron Kirkreit, RHP, 11th overall
1992: Paul Shuey, RHP, 2nd overall
1991: Manny Ramirez, OF, 13th overall
1990: Tim Costo, 3b, 8th overall
1989: Calvin Murray, OF, 11th overall (Did not sign)
1988: Mark Lewis, SS, 2nd overall
1988: Charles Nagy, RHP, 17th overall (Brett Butler compensation)
1988: Jeff Mutis, LHP, 27th overall (Brett Butler compensation)
1987: No first round pick (signed Rick Dempsey)
1986: Greg Swindell, LHP, 2nd overall
1985: Mike Poehl, RHP, 9th overall
1984: Cory Snyder, SS, 4th overall
1983: David Clark, OF, 11th overall
1982: Mark Snyder, RHP, 12th overall
1981: George Alpert, OF, 13th overall
1980: Kelly Gruber, SS, 10th overall
1979: Jon Bohnet, LHP, 7th overall
1978: Phil Lansford, SS, 10th overall
1977: Bruce Compton, OF, 11th overall
1976: Tim Glass, C, 14th overall
1975: Rick Cerone, C, 7th overall
1974: Tom Brennan, RHP, 4th overall
1973: Arthur Tufts, INF, 5th overall
1972: Rick Manning, OF, 2nd overall
1971: David Sloan, P, 9th overall
1970: Steve Dunning, RHP, 2nd overall
1969: Alvin McGrew, OF, 15th overall
1968: Robert Weaver, SS-OF, 6th overall
1967: Jack Heidemann, SS, 11th overall
1966: John Curtis, LHP, 12th overall
1965: Ray Fosse, C, 7th overall

Note: Not all that impressive of a group, is it? Manny Ramirez is, by far, the best first round selection this organization has ever made. I can't believe the Gray Flamingo (Tom Brennan) was drafted that high. The Indians have had the second pick in the draft (first pick in parenthesis) and ended up with Steve Dunning (Mike Ivie), Rick Manning (Dave Roberts), Greg Swindell (Jeff King), Mark Lewis (Andy Benes), and Paul Shuey (Phil Nevin). Ouch. The last time the Indians picked 6th in the draft was 1968 when they chose SS-OF Robert Weaver. He did not make it to the big leagues.

RECENT 6th OVERALL PICK SELECTIONS
2003: Ryan Harvey, Cubs, $2,400,000
2002: Zach Greinke, Royals, $2,475,000
2001: Josh Karp, Expos, $2,650,000
2000: Rocco Baldelli, Devil Rays, $2,250,000
1999: Josh Girdley, Expos, $1,700,000
1998: Ryan Mills, Twins, $2,000,000
1997: Dan Reichert, Royals, $2,000,000
1996: Seth Grieisinger, Tigers, $1,450,000
1995: Jaime Jones, Marlins, $1,337,000
1994: McKay Christensen, Angels, $700,000

Note: Harvey is raw but has some big numbers in the Sally League this season. Grienke made it to the big leagues after just two years in the minors. Not bad for a high school pitcher, huh? Baldelli had a tremedous rookie season for the Devil Rays last year. Reichert and Grieisinger are bouncing back and forth between triple-A and the minors while the rest are as fine a collection of has-beens and never-weres you could possibly put together.

2003 DRAFTEES RELATED TO FORMER INDIANS
Nick Francona, Penn HS LHP (son of Terry, grandson of Tito)
Sean Gamble, Auburn OF (son of Oscar)
Josh Johnson, Fla HS Ss (son of Larry Doby Johnson)
Posted on 6/07/2004

Thursday, June 03, 2004

2001 Review

Welcome to another edition of the 2004 CIR draft preview. Over the next week we'll provide you with all the information that you'll need to prepare for the 2004 MLB draft. Yesterday we reviewed the 2000 crop of draftees and today we put the 2001 draft under the 'scope.

With five selections in the first 51 picks and six selections among the first 100, the second draft conducted by John Mirabelli was an excellent opportunity to add a mass of talent into the organization. And for the most part, the Indians did not disappoint as Baseball American ranked them as having the third strongest draft in their annual post-draft review.

Whether by plan or not, the Indians focused on right-handed high school pitching in the early rounds and landed solid prospects in Dan Denham, JD Martin, Jake Dittler, and Travis Foley. Sean Smith joined the group when he signed in May 2002 as a draft-and-follow. Another right-handed HS starter, Alan Horne, was selected in the first round but spurned the Indians offer and enrolled at the University of Mississippi.

If there's a weakness in this draft, it's with the position players. Granted, they only took one in the first six rounds (nine picks) but it was a first round pick (albeit of the sandwich compensation variety) and it's taken four years for outfielder Mike Conroy to make it out of short-season ball. Only Luke Scott (9th round) has put up worthwhile numbers at the plate but that's tempered by the fact that Scott was an older prospect in lower classifications. He's since been traded to Houston in the Jeriome Robertson deal.

Aside from the above group of starters, Chris Cooper (Kinston), Jim Warden (Lake County) Todd Pennington (injured), and Doug Lantz (injured) all remain with the organization as relievers although none are considered serious prospects at this point. Matt Knox was the lone remaining everyday position player but he's attempting to make the conversion to the mound this summer.

So this draft was all about pitching and the Indians landed a bunch of it. At least, according to the initial reports. One quick note about grading draft classes. There are so many different ways to evaluate a class: allocation of funds, success of early picks, success of late picks, balance between hitting and pitching, etc., that five people could look at a class and come up with a different grade. I mention this because the vast majority of insiders consider the Indians 1999 draft a complete disaster while the Tribe generally gets high marks for its efforts in 2001. We reviewed 1999 on Tuesday and you'll learn all about 2001 below but if you simply look at what's left in the organization from each class, is there a big difference between the two groups? 1999 has Jason Davis (big leagues), Fernando Cabrera (AAA), and Kyle Denney (AAA) while 2001 has Jake Dittler (Akron), Dan Denham (Kinston), and Sean Smith (Lake County) carrying the torch while Travis Foley (injured) and JD Martin (struggling) look to rebound to their former status. 2001 had the initial quantity (and perceived quality) but through attrition and injury the number of projected major leaguers isn't far off from the 1999 class. And at the end of the day ($1 to Greenie), isn't getting players to the big leagues what it's all about? And if so, how does a prized group of draftees only deliver 2 or 3 players to the big leagues? Were the scouting reports inaccurate? Did player development fail to turn tools into performance? Good questions all. In a few years, it will definitely be interesting to look back and see which class, the universally panned 1999 group or the universally praised 2001 group, ended up having the greatest impact on the Cleveland Indians.

Note that the high school kids in this draft will need to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season or they will be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft this December.

Here's a pick-by-pick review of the Indians 2001 draft class....

1. Dan Denham, RHP, California HS (compensation from Red Sox for Manny Ramirez), $1,860,000
Highest draft pick and best arm among the Big Four high school right-handers drafted by the Tribe in 2001. Inconsistent control plagued him during his first two seasons (155.1 IP, 91 BB) but he showed improvement in the first half at Lake County in 2003 (73 IP, 22 BB, 63 K, 3.08 ERA). A promotion to Kinston followed in mid-season but his control fell off slightly (27 BB in 72 IP) and his dominance (39 K in 72 IP) and command (27 BB to 39 K) fell off sharply. Denham has returned to Kinston to start 2004 and has a 7-1 record with a 3.60 ERA for the K-Tribe in 10 starts. He's being hit (56 H in 55 IP) but his secondary numbers have bounced back somewhat (17 BB, 49 K). Ranked as the Indians #21 prospect by Baseball America.

1a. Alan Horne, RHP, Florida HS (compensation from White Sox for Sandy Alomar)
Did not sign with the Indians ($) and enrolled at Mississippi. Blew out his arm and had Tommy John surgery in April 2003. Transferred to Chipola JC in Florida and is expected to enroll at a division one school for 2005 (although I wouldn't be surprised to see a team draft him next week and attempt to sign him at a bargain price). Was regarded as one of the potentially top pitching prospects for the 2004 draft (compared to Kevin Brown) prior to his injury.

1b. JD Martin, RHP, California HS (supplemental pick for Ramirez), $975,000
Best early results of the Big Four which included a dominant 2001 debut in Burlington (1.38, 45.2 IP, 26 H, 11 W, 72 K). Because his offspeed stuff was so advanced, the Indians made him throw more fastballs at Columbus in 2002 in order to increase his command and location with that pitch. His numbers fell off but were still solid for a 19-year old making his debut in a full season league (3.90 ERA, 138.1 IP, 141 H, 46 W, 131 K). Moved up to Kinston in 2003, JD battled arm problems (strained elbow ligament) and made only 16 starts for the K-Tribe, posting a 4.27 ERA in 86.1 innings (95 H, 30 BB, 57 K). Notice the drop in those secondary numbers. Martin returned to Kinston to start 2004 and has struggled overall, posting a 5.56 ERA in 10 starts (55 IP, 60 H, 18 BB, 39 K) although his later starts have been better. He says he's healthy and has his full complement of pitches back so we'll see if the second half brings improvement. Ranked as the Indians #22 prospect by Baseball America.

1c. Michael Conroy, OF, Massachusetts HS (supplemental pick for David Segui), $870,000
Spent the first three years of his Tribe career in short-season ball before making his full-season debut with Lake County this year where he's hitting .267/.298/.426/.724 with 13 doubles and 6 triples. Finally showing some signs of life at the plate (Indians will say that Northern high school take longer to develop) but eight walks to 39 strikeouts in 176 at-bats doesn't bode well for future success. Doesn't turn 22 until October so there's still time, but the clock is ticking. Critics say he was overdrafted (projected 3rd-5th round pick).

2. Jake Dittler, RHP, Nevada HS (compensation from Orioles for Segui), $750,000
Another big right-hander who underwent a mechanical overhaul since signing with the Tribe. Extremely inconsistent his first seasons in 2001 and 2002, Dittler's command improved tremendously in 2003 with Lake County (89 IP, 20 BB) and Kinston (48.2 IP, 11 BB) and he struck out a combined 114 in 137.2 innings with a combined 2.54 ERA. That breakout led to Baseball America ranking him as the #4 prospect in the Indians system entering 2004 as well as the #99 overall prospect in baseball. Promoted to Akron in 2004, Dittler missed some time in May with a sore back but has a 3.78 ERA in six starts (33.1 IP, 32 H, 11 BB, 24 K).

3. Nick Moran, RHP, Fresno State, $400,000
College righty who was plagued by elbow problems. Solid debut in the Valley in 2001 and was off to a good start for the K-Tribe in 2002 before having elbow surgery in June. Returned to Kinston again in 2003 and had a 3.55 ERA in six starts (33 IP, 32 H, 7 W, 20 K) before being shutdown with elbow problems again. Released in November 2003 and it does not appear he is playing in 2004.

4. Travis Foley, RHP, Kentucky HS, $245,000
The least heralded of the high school Big Four, Foley put up the best numbers in his first two seasons (Mahoning Valley 2001 and Columbus 2002), posting ERAs of 2.80 and 2.81 and K/IP ratios of 59/45 and 138/137-1/3. He missed the beginning of 2003 with a muscle strain in his right forearm and struggled initially upon his return (5.73 ERA through 33 innings in late May) but rebounded to finish with a 3.69 ERA in 24 starts covering 126.2 innings. The good sign is that he again allowed less hits (115) than inning pitched but the worrisome signs were that his walks were up (54) and strikeouts were down (96). Promoted to Akron for 2004, Foley is currently on the Aeros disabled list with elbow inflammation. After seven starts, he had a 6.99 ERA with 35 hits allowed in 28.1 innings. Hopefully, the elbow was the cause of the poor performance and he'll return to his normal self when healthy. Ranked as the Indians #20 prospect by Baseball America.

5. Marcos Mendoza, LHP, San Diego State, $170,000
Enjoyed a breakthrough 1st half in 2002 at Kinston (0.97 ERA, 46.1 IP, 36 K) but struggled with his command after being promoted to Akron (37.1 IP, 24 W, 27 K). Had some off the field problems early in 2003 and did not pitch well at Akron (10.67 ERA, 9 app) upon his return. Sent back to Kinston where he finished with a 3.25 ERA in 28 appearances but only mamaged 34 strikeouts while striking out 26 in 52.2 innings. Recently released by the Indians after giving up five runs in 1-2/3 innings for the Aeros. Looks like he signed with the Rockies and is now pitching for Visalia in the California League.

6. Jim Ed Warden, RHP, Tennessee Tech, $110,000
Big right-hander who debuted by striking out 52 batters in 52.2 innings in the Valley in 2001 before having shoulder surgery in February 2002 and September 2002. Currently working out of the bullpen in Lake County where he's punched out 35 in 29 innings with a 3.64 ERA in 16 appearances. Turned 25 in May and is in low-A ball.

7. Josh Noviskey, OF, New Jersey HS, $99,500
Hit .208 with four homeruns in three years of short-season ball. Currently the backup catcher in Lake County where he recently enjoyed a 5 RBI game but is hitting just .205 with a dinger.

8. Miguel Quintana, OF, Florida International, $20,000
Mediocre numbers in his three years with the Tribe. Selected by Philadelphia in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft in December 2003. Currently hitting .250/.294/.368 with three homeruns for double-A Reading.

9. Luke Scott, OF, Oklahoma State, $10,000
Did not play for the Indians in 2001 after having Tommy John surgery in July of that year. Posted solid numbers in 2002 and 2003 which were tempered by the fact that Scott was considered old for each level he was playing. He did hit .352/.403/.634 with four homeruns in the Arizona Fall League this past off-season but was not added to the Indians 40-man roster. Traded to Houston, along with Willy Taveras, for Jeriome Robertson late in spring training and he's currently back in the Carolina League where he's hitting .280/.372/.484 with seven homeruns for Salem. Scott turns 26 in June and the fact that he's stuck in low-A says all you need to know about his prospect status.

10. Brian Harrison, RHP, Georgia HS
Did not sign with the Indians and enrolled at Georgia Southern. Went 7-6 with a 4.01 ERA for Georgia Southern in 29 appearances this season. BA ranks him as the #33 prospect in Georgia.

11. Brad Guglielmelli, C, Allan Hancock JC (Calif)
Released last summer after just 69 ABs in the system. Signed and released by Colorado and is currently playing for the independent Windy City Thunderbolts (0-for-8). 11th round picks should last longer than one year, don't you think?

12. Scott Sturkie, RHP, Coastal Carolina
College starter turned reliever. Dominate stretch (27.1 IP, 29 K, 4 W, 0.99) in 2002 for Columbus earned him a promotion to Kinston. Numbers fell but he held his own. Returned to the Carolina League in 2003 and posted a 2.76 ERA in 78.1 innings (73 H, 27 BB, 44 K). Was off to a strong start for Akron this year with a 1.78 ERA in 25.1 innings (22 H, 11 BB, 10 K) before being sent to Atlanta as the player to be named later in the Russ Branyan trade. Since the deal, Sturkie has not allowed a run in three innings for double-A Greenville. His ERAs were certainly impressive but those secondary numbers (K/IP ratio) will need to improve for him to have continued success as he moves up the ladder.

13. Matthew Knox, OF, Millersville Univ. (PA)
Hit .247 with 22 homeruns in three seasons with the Indians, making it as far as Kinston in the second half of 2003. Attempting to convert to the mound in extended spring training this year.

14. Doug Lantz, RHP, Kansas
Another college starter turned reliever who is advancing through the system one level at a time. Posted a 3.66 ERA for the K-Tribe last year in 51.2 innings (just 32 strikeouts) before undergoing shoulder surgery in August. Has not pitched in 2004.

15. Martin Vergara, RHP, New Jersey HS
Did not sign with the Indians and is now a junior at Notre Dame. Did not pitch in 2004 for the Irish but I could not google a reason as to why.

16. Sean Smith, RHP, California HS
High profile DFE who signed with the Tribe in May 2002 for a reported $800k-$1.2 million (depending on what source you read). Currently in the Lake County rotation (for the second straight year) and while his ERA is not noteworthy at 4.30, his secondary numbers are not that bad (44 IP, 41 H, 18 W, 44 K). Consistency is Smith's biggest issue right now. When he's good, he's usually very good. But when he's bad, he can get lit up faster than the office drunk at the company christmas party. BA had Smith ranked as the Indians #30 prospect entering this season.

17. David Jensen, 1B, BYU
Did not sign with the Indians as a draft-eligible sophomore and returned to BYU. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2003 by the Royals and he's hitting .178 for Burlington in the low-A Midwest League.

18. TJ Burton, RHP, Ontario HS
Signed late and did not make his debut until 2002. Spent two years in Burlington before making his full-season debut this year for Lake County where he has a 5.03 ERA in 14 appearances (34 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 23 K) out of the bullpen. Missed some time in 2002 after being hit in the face with a line drive while sitting on the bench.

19. Luis Alvarado, LHP, Puerto Rico
Released sometime in 2003. Spent two seasons in Burlington, posting a 3.31 ERA and striking out 60 hitters in 65.1 innings.

20. Michael Rogers, RHP, Oral Roberts
Signed late with the Indians and did not pitch in 2001. Posted a 3.60 ERA in 15 starters for the Scrappers in 2002. Underwent shoulder surgery in January 2003. Voluntarily retired in March 2004.

21. Richard Spaulding, LHP, Lexington CC (KY)
28 walks in 24.2 innings in two years. Released last year.

22. Jimmy Schultz, RHP, Texas HS
Shoulder surgery in July 2001 and January 2002 allowed Schultz to throw only 44 innings in his pro career. That's not surprising when you consider he also had shoulder surgery in high school. Released in April of 2004.

23. Kenton Myers, C, Mesa State
Hit .232 in 112 ABs in two seasons. Traded to the Red Sox in the spring of 2003 for infielder Bryan Kent. Released by the Sox this year.

24. Matthew Blethen, LHP, West Virginia
Solid debut in Burlington in 2001 but that's not surprising given that he was a college player in a league full of high school players. Did not pitch well in either Columbus or the Valley in 2002. Released in June 2003.

25. Rickie Morton, OF, Pacific
Big debut in the Valley in 2001 (12 HR, 15 2B, 238 AB, 37/55 BB/K ratio). Skipped low-A in 2002 but struggled at Kinston, posting similar power numbers (13-13) in 100 more ABs and seeing his BB/K ratio plummet to 30/100. Released in the spring of 2003 by the Tribe and currently playing for the indy league Joliet Jackhammers (.158, 3-for-19).

26. Bryce Uegawachi, SS, Hawaii Pacific
Small (5'6") utility player who became a fan favorite at Cafaro Field in the Valley. Released in 2003. Currently hitting a robust .429 (12-for-28) for the Springfield-Ozark Ducks of the independent Frontier League.

27. Josh Lex, C, Sacramento CC
Did not sign with the Indians. Enrolled at Oral Roberts where's he currently the leading power threat for the #13 ranked Golden Eagles and hitting .333/.431/.552/.983 with 11 homeruns and 65 RBIs. He's also been plunked 18 times which is second all-time nationally to Rudy Stein of the California Bears. Lex is listed on the ORU roster as an OF/C. Interesting enough, despite the lofty stats above, he's not listed as one of the top 30 prospects in the state of Oklahoma by Baseball America.

28. Brandon Harmsen, RHP, Grand Rapids CC (Mich)
Did not sign with the Indians. Went to Grand Rapids CC and was drafted by the Indians again in 2001. Did not sign and was drafted by the Yankees in the 6th round of the 2002 draft. Moved to the 'pen this season, Harmsen currently has a 3-0, 1.93 ERA in 16 appearances for Battle Creek in the Midwest League.

29. Chris Hunter, RHP, Utah HS
Did not sign with the Indians and enrolled at Utah Valley State. Big right-hander (6'4", 215) was also drafted out of high school in 1999 by the Dodgers and in 2002 (32nd round) by the Angels. The Angels re-drafted him in the 41st round of the 2003 draft and Hunter currently is 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA (40 IP, 35 H, 19 BB, 32 K) for Cedar Rapids of the Midwest League. Note that from 1999-2001, Hunter was on a Mormon mission and that he is the all-time leader in strikeouts at Utah Valley State. Plus, he's been drafted four times which is pretty cool.

30. Keith Lillash, 2B, Cleveland State
Played one season in the Valley and then retired.

31. Brian Kirby, C, Arkansas
Hit .220 with 27 homeruns in three seasons with the Indians before being released this April. Currently a teammate of Bryce Uegawchi on the Springfield-Ozark Ducks where's he mashing at a .378 (14-for-37) clip with four longballs.

32. Andy Baxter, 1B, East Tennessee State
Released during the 2003 season. Suffered a shoulder injury in 2002 while hitting .252 (4 HR, 13 SB) for Mahoning Valley.

33. Chad Peshke, 2B, UC Santa Barbara
Utility player with a good eye (47 W, 40 K last year). Retired this spring.

34. Aaron Mardsen, LHP, Hutchinson CC (Kan)
Passed on the Indians to enroll at Nebraska. Selected in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft by Colorado and currently is 3-3 with a 3.36 ERA (75 IP, 70 H, 16 BB, 47 K, 13 HR) in 11 starts for Asheville in the Sally League. BA ranked him as the #30 Rockies prospect entering this season and noted that he has a plus-plus slider.

35. Chris Cooper, LHP, New Mexico
Smallish (5'11", 190) lefty who is repeating Kinston to start 2004. Currently has a 2.52 ERA in 25 innings for the K-Tribe and has struck out 24 while walking just six. Entering this season, Cooper was averaging just under a strikeout per inning with a 3.21 ERA for his Indians career. Former college starter turned reliever. Big test will come in Akron later this season or next year.

36. Jose Cruz, OF, Metropolitan Univ (PR)
Spent the last two years in Burlington, hitting .225 in 2002 and .253 in 2003. Struck out a lot last year (25 times) but also walked a lot (24 times).

37. Todd Culp, RHP, Pacific
Spent two years working out of the bullpen in the Valley before being released in the fall of 2002. Walked 27 batters in 20.2 innings in his last season with the Tribe.

38. Neto Quiroz, LHP, Saddleback CC (Calif)
Did not sign with the Indians. Pitched for the College of the Southwest (NM) in 2003 where he posted a 4.91 ERA in 14 innings.

39. Brian Farman, RHP, Pacific Lutheran
Decent debut in the Valley (16 IP, 12 K, 2.81 ERA) but has not pitched since and is no longer in the organization.

40. Aaron Russell, RHP, Cerro Coso CC (Calif)
Did not sign with the Indians. Spent a couple of years with Cerro Coso CC where he may have missed an entire season with an injury. Transferred to Missouri Valley College for 2004 but I could not find stats for this season.

41. Ross Lewis, RHP/OF, Florida HS
Did not sign with the Indians and enrolled at Central Florida CC. Signed with the Angels after being drafted in the 31st round in 2002. A big, skinny, right-hander (6'8", 198), he only pitched 10.1 innings in 2003 (19 strikeouts) and I suspect an injury. Lewis was released in April 2004 by the Halos.

42. Kyle Allen, LHP, California HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Spent two seasons at Orange Coast CC where he struck out 18 batters in a game last season. Transferred to Lewis-Clark State for 2004 and posted a 7-2 record with a 3.28 ERA in 68.2 innings (62 H, 12 BB, 59 K). Lewis-Clark State is a NAIA baseball power, winning the NAIA championship in 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2003. The three-peat attempt, however, was thwarted this year by Embry-Riddle (on Lewis-Clark's home field no less as they were hosting the NAIA World Series). Allen is ranked as the number two prospect in Idaho by Baseball America which notes that he locates his pitches well and has a good curve but needs to add velocity to his mid-to-high 80s fastball. Sounds like a potential LOOGY to me.

43. Vincent Davis, LHP, New Mexico JC
Did not sign with the Indians. Senior at Southern University where he had a 5.06 ERA in seven appearances through May 11. Also drafted by Tampa Bay out of high school in 2000.

44. Garrett Mock, RHP, Texas HS
Did not sign with the Indians, choosing to attend Grayson CC. Drafted in the 14th round in 2002 by the Twins but did not sign and enrolled at the University of Houston. Missed some time with an ankle injury this year but managed to post a 3.71 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) for the Cougars (68 IP, 68 H, 25 BB, 42 K, 1 HR). Baseball America ranks him as the #18 prospect in Texas and a potential second-to-fifth round pick. BA also notes that he impressed at the Cape Cod League All-Star Game last summer but his rough spring (ankle injury) may serve to knock him down on draft boards.

45. Brett Ashmun, RHP, Modesto JC (Calif)
Did not sign with the Indians. Whereabouts unknown.

46. Todd Pennington, RHP, Southeast Missouri State
Doesn't throw hard but he's posted exceptional numbers wherever he's pitched in the system. Dominated the South Atlantic League in 2003 with Lake County as he allowed just 14 hits in 37.1 innings while striking out an amazing 65 hitters and walking 17. Sports Weekly named him to their Minor League All-Star team in recognition of the above and his microscopic 0.72 ERA and 20 saves for the Captains. Also posted a 3.60 ERA in seven games for Akron and a 5.00 ERA in nine innings in the Arizona Fall League. Pennington has not pitched yet this season and for the life of me, I can't remember what has him sidelined.

47. Billy Brian, RHP, LSU
Did not sign with the Indians. Went 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA for the indy league Baton Rogue Riverbats in 2003. I bet that team has a lot of former LSU players on its roster.

48. Douglas Brooks, RHP, Henry Ford CC
Did not sign with the Indians. Played for Grand Rapids CC in 2002 and Wayne State in 2003. Not listed on the Wayne State roster for 2004.

49. Jason Columbus, 1B, New Mexico JC
Did not sign with the Indians and enrolled at LSU. Signed with the Giants as an undrafted free-agent in 2003 and is currently hitting .316/.350/.537/.887 with three homeruns for Hagerstown in the Sally League. He's also walked just three times while striking out 26 times.

50. James Burok, RHP, Pennsylvania HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Junior at Old Dominion who went 2-8 with a 4.41 ERA (65.1 IP, 76 H, 23 BB, 42 K) for the Monarchis this season while pitching in the shadows of expected high first round pick Justin Verlander. ODU website notes that Burok was "slowed down" by injuries in 2003.

DRAFT BREW
John Mirabelli told mlb.com that this years draft shapes up to be "average" and if he had to project how this class was going to measure up six-ten years down the road compared to more recent classes, he would rank it near the bottom. Mirabelli added that the draft is thin in "high-impact, high-ceiling" guys, he doesn't think the Indians will land an impact player at number six, the draft is deepest in college pitching and catching, and that there are "maybe" two high school guys who project as high-impact.
Posted on 6/03/2004

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

2000 Review

Welcome to another special edition of the CIR draft preview. Over the next week we'll provide you with all the information that you'll need to prepare for the 2004 MLB draft. Yesterday we reviewed the 1999 crop of draftees and today we put the 2000 draft under the 'scope.

In the first draft conducted by current Indians Director of Scouting John Mirabelli, the Indians 2000 draft class is not a particularly strong group but it's generally an improvement over the 1999 abomination put together by his predecessor. I say "generally" because that 1999 class, while incredibly weak in the early rounds, has produced one full-time major league starter (Jason Davis) with two decent prospects in triple-A (Fernando Cabrera and Kyle Denney) which this class has not done although it has the potential to do so. Conducted under the organizational mantra of power arms, power bats, and raw tools as dictated by John Hart, the Indians drafted six high schoolers in their first seven picks with only Corey Smith to show for it four years later (included in that group are two major busts in Mark Folsom and Sean Swedlow). Losing Derek Thompson to the Dodgers in the Rule 5 Draft was a significant loss and signing Conor Jackson or Brian Wilson as late round flyers would have significantly boosted this classes standing. The Tribe did pick up a decent college pitcher in Brian Tallet (now injured) and added a couple of later round sleepers in Ryan Church (now with Montreal), Rodney Choy Foo (scuffling in double-A), and Eric Crozier (4A slugger profile). Kyle Evans, Victor Kliene, Joe Inglett, and Jonathan Van Every also remain in the organization. Overall, though, this group probably warrants a C even or C- grade as none of these players is considered a can't miss prospect at this point in their career. While it's possible this class could turn out 3-5 big leaguers, it's also possible that it could turn out none or only one. In any draft grade, the success of the first round pick carries a lot of weight and with the Indians already missing on so many early selections, the fate of Corey Smith will go a long ways towards determining the long-term impact of this class.

Here's the pick-by-pick review of the Indians 2000 Draft Class....

1) Corey Smith, SS, New Jersey HS, #26 overall, $1,375,000
Raw Power with Gary Sheffield comparisons when drafted. The raw power remains but the Sheffield comparisons are a thing of the past. After a modest growth season last year in Akron (where he hit .271/.340/.397/.737 with nine homeruns but a much improved 50 BB / 99 K ratio), Smith is repeating a level for the first this season as the Indians elected to allow him an opportunity to consolidate his skills at double-A in 2004. The dominance (or improved numbers) from such a move has not appeared yet as Smith is scuffling along at a .228/.335/.413/.748 clip with seven homeruns and 48 strikeouts in 167 ABs. On the positive side, he has walked 25 times but striking out once every three at-bats is not a good indicator of future major league success. Smith continues to struggle in the field as well as he's already made 16 miscues this season and now has 172 for his career, including 45 in 2003, which would make it seem like a move to the outfield would probably be in his best interest. The organizational hole at 3B in front of him in Cleveland and Buffalo and the fact that a switch to the outfield would make him the 8th or 9th best outfield prospect in the upper levels (behind Gerut, Sizemore, Escobar, Ludwick, Crisp, Cooper, Gutierrez, and Francisco) is likely the only thing keeping him in the infield right now. Corey was added to the 40-man roster this past off-season but I would think that his spot may be in serious jeopardy if he doesn't show marked improvement over the summer. He's still very young and the Indians will give him every chance to develop but, right now, this has the "b" word written all over it. It's a shame because the Indians could really use a right-handed power-hitting third basemen and Corey generally gets rave reviews for his work ethic and love of the game.

1a) Derek Thompson, LHP, Florida HS (loss of Mike Jackson), #37 overall, $850,000
Projectable lefty when drafted, Thompson reportedly hit 95 mph in the Instructional League in 2002 which prompted the Dodgers to select him in the Rule 5 Draft that December. He then blew out his arm the following spring and spent the rest of the season on the Dodgers disabled list. In a strange twist (that I'm still not sure how it worked out), the Dodgers non-tendered Thompson a contract which allowed him to become a free-agent and eventually led to him re-signing with the Dodgers thus voiding any Rule 5 rights the Indians may still have owned. He's not back to throwing 95 mph this season but reports out of Jacksonville show that he's back in the 87-91 mph range and in ten starts for the double-A Suns, Thompson has a 2.65 ERA (54.1 IP, 62 H, 18 BB, 40 K). Tough loss for the Indians as lefties who throw in the 90s don't exactly grow on trees.

Note: Jason Stokes, Xavier Nady, and Bobby Hill are among the players the Indians passed on to select Smith and Thompson.

2) Brian Tallet, LHP, Louisiana State (Choice from Phillies as compensation for Jackson), #55 overall, $595,000
Signed late in 2000 and pitched only 15.1 innings in the Valley. Skipped low-A in 2001 and went right to Kinston where he struck out 164 in 160 innings with a 3.04 ERA. Started 2002 in Akron, went 10-1 with a 3.08 ERA, promoted to Buffalo midseason and posted a 3.07 ERA in eight appearances before a two start audition (1.50 ERA) with the big league club in September. Was in the mix for one of the open rotation spots in 2003 but returned to Buffalo after the emergence of Jason Davis and Billy Traber that spring. Posted a 5.14 ERA in 15 starts for the Bisons and a 4.74 ERA (19 IP, 23 H, 8 BB, 9 K) in five appearances, including three starts, for the Indians. Sidelined by an elbow injury on July 26 that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in late August that will likely force Tallet to sit out the entire 2004 season. There's been talk of moving him to the bullpen if he can't refine a third pitch but, for now, the big concern is his recovery from the TJ. Overshadowed by the other young pitchers but he remains a decent prospect.

2a) Mark Folsom, OF, Florida HS, #66 overall, $700,000
Major disappointment. Toolsy outfielder hit .208 in 587 at-bats with 14 homeruns and 223 strikeouts before being released last summer. Tried hooking on with the Braves as an infielder in the spring of 2003 but was released. Looks like he's currently out of baseball.

Note: Grady Sizemore was selected with the $75 overall pick and signed for $2 million.

3) Sean Swedlow, 1B, California HS, #96 overall, $450,000
Another huge bust for the Indians. Big left-handed power hitter who hit .215 in 801 at-bats with 276 strikeouts over three seasons. Drafted as a catcher, he soon moved to first base and made 23 errors in 2001 and 25 more in 2002. Left Columbus midseason 2002 for personal reasons and is currently on the Indians voluntarily retired list. San Dimas High School football rules! (had to say that one more time)

Note: Between Folsom and Swedlow, the Indians received 1388 ABs of .212/.281/.376/.657 production with 57 doubles, 6 triples, and 24 homeruns over three seasons (and it only cost us $1.15 million) These two failed picks are another big reason for the huge void of talent in the system entering the 2002 season.

Note: Cliff Lee was selected with the #105 pick and signed for $275,000. Rangers outfielder Lanyce Nix was selected with pick #124 and signed for $250,000

4) Adam Cox, OF, Darton College (GA), #126 overall, $216,000
Converted to the mound as a LHP after signing with the Indians. Underwent left shoulder surgery in April 2001, March 2002, and June 2003. Ouch. Has thrown only 51.2 innings (46.2 in 2001, none in 2001, 5 in 2002, and none in 2003) for the Indians, walking 32 and fanning 55. He's currently on the Kinston disabled list.

5) Rashad Eldridge, OF, Georgia HS, #156 overall, $281,000
Toolsy outfielder, extremely raw when drafted. Never did much with the Tribe in two years at Burlington (.221, 39 W, 107 K) and was traded to the Rangers in March 2003 for Chris Magruder (who has since left the Indians organization). Currently hitting .214 for double-A Frisco.

Note: Derrick Van Dusen was selected with the #162 pick and signed for $146,000.

6) Kyle Evans, RHP, Baylor, #186 overall, $130,000
Had Tommy John surgery in July 2001 and hadn't pitched a whole lot (190.2 innings in 2000-2002) until he tossed 133 innings for Akron last season. A solid 3.59 ERA hid a low BB/K ratio (37 BB/69 K) and low K/IP ratio (69 K/133 IP) for the Aeros. Currently back in double-A for 2004 where he has a 9.00 in two starts.

7) Victor Kleine, LHP, John Logan JC (ILL), #216 overall, $90,000
Spent three years in the Valley, before making the jump to Kinston in 2003 where he turned in a pretty good season, going 6-5 with a 2.56 ERA in 28 appearances, including 16 starts (116 IP, 114 H, 35 BB, 79 K). Bumped up a level to Akron in 2004, Kliene spent the early portion of the season in extended spring training but has pitched well since being activated, posting a 2.59 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) with a .235 BAA and 26 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. Kliene doesn't get mentioned much (or at all) as a prospect but (in a small sample size) he's passing the double-A litmus test.

Note: Marlins top prospect Dontrelle Willis was selected #223 overall by the Cubs and signed for $200,000

8) Joe Inglett, OF, Nevada, #246 overall, $20,000
Moved to the infield (3B/2B) after signing with the Indians. Sally League all-star in 2002 but has little pop and little speed although he hits for average (.282/.332/.362 after promotion to Kinston in '02). Enjoyed a strong 2003 campaign for Akron where he hit .283/.391 for the Aeros before dislocating his left elbow in the Eastern League playoffs. Inglett was disabled again early this season with left elbow ulnar neuritis and the ABJ noted that he has "increasing numbness" in his surgically repaired left arm which doesn't sound good. Inglett is currently out "indefinitely" and was hitting .190 in 21 at-bats for the Aeros this season. When healthy, Inglett profiles as a utility player and if he could hit the ball out of the yard 10 times a year he might make a pretty decent utility prospect.

Note: Marshall McDougall was selected #270 overall and signed for $5,000.

9) Scott Tolbert, RHP, Georgia HS, #276 overall
Did not sign with the Indians. Posted solid numbers (7-2, 3.03, 68.1 IP, 49 H, 60 K) at Georgia Southern in 2003 as a junior. May have been injured late as it doesn't appear that he was drafted last year. May be currently pitching at Furman on their club team. May be that I spend too much time trying to figure stuff like this out.

10) Tom Canale, RHP, California Lutheran, #306 overall, $43,000
3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in 14.1 innings for Columbus in 2001 and then he disappeared. Injuries probably got him.

11) Scott Threinen, SS, Minnesota HS
In three injury-plauged seasons with the Tribe, Threinen hit just .215 in 177 career ABs and was released in February of 2004. When not playing baseball, Threinen is a renowned Goose Caller who works for Avery Outdoors and placed second at the 2002 World Championships.

12) Jason Colson, RHP, Winthrop
Did not sign with the Indians. Drafted in the 7th round of the 2001 draft by the Blue Jays. Was considered a two-way player (3B/P) coming out but the Jays kept him on the mound. Decent debut in '01 but he struggled with a promotion to the high-A Florida State League in 2002. May have been injured at some point that season and he tossed only six innings (all scoreless) for Auburn in the short-season NY-Penn League before being released in June of 2003.

13) Jeff Haase, C, Cleveland State
Eight homers in the Valley last season but that's not all that impressive when it's a short-season league and you're in your third season of pro ball. Tommy John surgery in 2001. Retired this spring.

14) Ryan Church, OF, Nevada
The sleeper of this draft. Church, who was originally a pitcher, was drafted out of Nevada despite spending only one full season in the outfield. He broke out with a strong first half at Kinston in 2002 (.326/.433/.569, 10 HR) and posted solid surface numbers (.296, 12 HR) after a midseason promotion to Akron that hid a worrisome drop in plate discipline (12 BB, 58 K). Returning to Akron in 2003, Church was plauged by a series of nagging injuries and hit an uninspiring .261/.325/.429/.754 with just 13 longballs for the Aeros. His plate discipline also fell off in the second half as he went from a 21/28 BB/K ratio in mid-May to a finishing ratio of 32/64 BB/K. That performance coupled with the emergence of Grady Sizemore and Jason Cooper (among others) on the Indians outfield prospect food chain led to Mark Shapiro including Church (and infielder Maicer Izturis) in an off-season trade with the Expos for reliever Scott Stewart. Stewart, as we all know, was simply dreadful in the early going for the Tribe this year, being pounded at a .365 clip and posting a 7.24 ERA in 23 appearances before being optioned to Buffalo where he's allowed four runs in two innings for the Bisons. Church, meanwhile, who was once compared to Jim Edmonds, Trot Nixon, and Todd Hollandsworth by the Indians, is currently raking for triple-A Edmonton to the tune of .353/.429/.527 with 10 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homeruns, and a solid 19/24 BB/K ratio in 39 games for the Trappers. This trade couldn't look worse for the Indians right now.

15) Nate Janowicz, OF, South Carolina
Big start to his career in the Valley in 2000 (.340), productive enough in low-A in 2001 (.294) but a 9/38 BB/K ratio forecasted the slump when he was promoted to high-A Kinston (.253) for the second half. Hit .265 with a dinger last year for the K-Tribe before being released to pursue a rap career as "Whitebread".

16) Luke Field, RHP, Arizona State
Spent two mediocre summers in the Valley. Released in early 2002 after posting a 5.79 ERA in six innings in Kinston.

17) Brandon Matheny, LHP, Emory & Henry College
Finesse lefty who steadily advanced one rung up the ladder each year until starting 2003 on the Kinston DL. Matheny posted decent surface numbers at each level but the telltale sign of his Indians future was the below-average 42/41 BB/K and 41/79 K/IP ratios he posted in Kinston in 2002. Released by the Tribe in 2003 and spent the summer pitching for the independent league Kansas City T-Bones where he at least got to enjoy some good barbeque.

18) Jeremy Rogelstad, RHP, San Jose State
Did not sign with the Indians. Was drafted in the 33rd round of the 2001 draft by the Phillies. Posted a 3.77 ERA for the Phillies short-season squad in Batavia in 2002 before being released. Also pitched for Amarillo in the Central League in 2003.
19) Chad Cislak, RHP, UCLA
Signed with Tribe. Gave up one run in 1/3 of an inning for Burlington in 2001 and then vanished. Could be the owner of Kitchen Concepts design center in Tucson, Arizona (not sure if this is him but the name and geography match) where he (or another Chad Cislak) was named Canyon Creek's Rookie of the Year in 2002. I could have used his services last summer instead of dealing with Home Depot.

20) Ryan Larson, RHP, Sacramento CC
Smallish (5'10") right-handed who steadily worked his way through the Indians system after being drafted, Larson emerged as a bullpen prospect in the second half of 2002 when he posted a 1.78 ERA with a 6/30 BB/K ratio after a mid-season promotion to Akron. Returning to double-A last season, Larson did not fare as well despite the outward appearance of a 3.84 ERA as he struck out only 29 in 63.1 innings which was a departure from his previous career average of just over a strikeout per inning. The Indians released Larson in the spring of 2004 and he signed with the Red Sox where he posted a 1.77 ERA for high-A Sarasota before a recent promotion to double-A Portland.

21) Steve Fugarino, RHP, Iona
Signed with the Indians and lasted one year.

22) Vance Pietro, 3B, Creighton
See Fugarino above.

23) Brandon Harmsen, RHP, Michigan HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Went to Grand Rapids CC and was drafted by the Indians again in 2001. Did not sign and was drafted by the Yankees in the 6th round of the 2002 draft. Moved to the 'pen this season, Harmsen currently has a 3-0, 1.93 ERA in 16 appearances for Battle Creek in the Midwest League.

24) Chris Houser, 3B, Texas
Don't think he signed. Last seen toiling for the Fort Worth Cats of the Central League in 2001.

25) Andy Helmer, RHP, Purdue
Interesting story. Drafted as a senior he needed one more class to graduate but needed to stay on scholarship to avoid having to pay for his final semester himself (if he signed with the Tribe, he would have lost his scholarship). I saw something that he signed in late 2000 but I don't show any record he ever pitched for the Indians. Good for him for valuing the education.

26) Bruddah Choy Foo, SS, Hawaii HS
"Rodney" signed late in 2000 and was injured for most of 2001 (only 64 ABs). Hit .264/.326/.404 with 14 doubles, 8 triples, and 8 homeruns at low-A Columbus in 2002 which was pretty impressive for a high school kid essentially making his professional debut. Got off to a great start at Kinston in 2003 hitting .321/.409/.470 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 steals with a 17/28 BB/K ratio through May 20 before tailing off to finish at .257 with 17 doubles and 11 homeruns. His performance did not excite in the Arizona Fall League either as he hit .243 in 70 at-bats. Choy Foo continues to struggle this season at double-A Akron as he's hitting just .185 with a 13/29 BB/K ratio for the Aeros although he's gotten some hits of late. Choy Foo profiles as a utility player at this point in his career.

27) Johri Litman, RHP, Yavapai JC (AZ)
Pitched three games for Burlington in 2000. Had Tommy John surgery in 2001. Released by Amarillo of the Central League in 2002.

28) Jeff Opalewski, RHP, Michigan HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Senior at Central Michigan where he had a 10.01 ERA in 10 appearances for the Chippewas this season.

29) Jonathan Van Every, OF, Itawamba JC (Miss)
Signed by the Tribe as a DFE. Toolsy outfielder who is enjoying a pretty good season in Kinston although he is still striking out a ton. Van Every is hitting .270/.357/.434 with six doubles and four homeruns (which is a big improvement from his lifetime .226 average) but he's also struck out 43 times in 122 at-bats.

30) Brian Wilson, RHP, New Hampshire HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Enrolled at LSU and was ranked the #30 college prospect by BA in their 2003 preseason rankings before he underwent Tommy John surgery in April of that year. The Giants took a chance on his potential by snagging him in the 24th round and he has yet ot pitch in 2004.

31) Conor Jackson, 3B, California HS
Did not sign with the Indians and went on to an All-American career at the University of California. Drafted by Arizona with the #19 overall pick in 2003 and one pick after the Indians selected outfielder Brad Snyder from Ball State. Jackson tore up the short-season Northwest League in his debut, hitting .319/.410/.533 with an amazing 35 doubles, which earned him recognition as the number six prospect in the Snakes organization. Promoted to the California League in 2004, Jackson is currently hitting .306/.419/.548 with 13 doubles, 10 homeruns, 41 RBIs, and an impressive 36 BB / 27 K ratio for Lancaster. Arizona has also moved him to the outfield. He could move quickly and I would not be surprised to see him in double-A sometime this summer (and sooner rather than later). Like Jeff Baker the year before, if Jackson had signed with the Tribe, it's possible he could have been the Indians starting third basemen this season.

32) Scott Thomas, RHP, Lake Michigan CC
Also selected by the Indians out of high school in 1999. He didn't sign then but the Tribe was persistent and inked him to a deal in December 2000. The wait was worth it as Thomas posted a 6.52 ERA with 12 walks in 9.2 innings in Burlington in 2001.

33) Ashley Dunlap, LHP, Palomar JC (Cal)
Did not sign with the Indians. Pitched last year as a senior at San Francisco State where he posted a 8.00 ERA in nine innings. Just a hunch, but I think injuries got him.

34) Steve Fitch, RHP, Kutztown Univ
Released by the Indians in the summer of 2002 after giving up 50 hits in 31 innings for Kinston. Spent some time with the Pirates organization in 2003 (%.26 ERA for high-A Lynchburg) before being released.

35) Will McKenzie, RHP, Walters State CC (Tenn)
Also drafted by the Tribe in 1999. Did not sign in either year. Spent two years at Walters State, pitched for Louisville in 2002, and East Tennessee State in 2003. For a college nomad, I'm a little surprised that McKenzie hasn't turned up in independent ball somewhere (although it's possible that his name is common that more precise googling is required).

36) J.T. Schultz, LHP, Wisconsin HS
Did not sign with the Tribe. Enrolled at Indiana State for one season before transferring to Xavier. Missed all of 2002 with a shoulder injury. Currently has a 3.90 ERA in 27.2 innings for the Musketeers.

37) Damon Katz, 2B, Pepperdine
Organizational. Split time between Kinston and Columbus in 2001 before leaving baseball.

38) Robert Sierer, RHP, Bluffton College
Signed with the Tribe and lasted one year.

39) Curtis Ledbetter, C, Kansas HS
Did not sign with the Indians. Spent one season at Garden City CC before transferring to Nebraska. Redshirted in 2002 due to injury so he's just a junior with the 'Huskers. Listed as an infielder (primarily 1B) on the Nebraska roster, Ledbetter was named as a third-team preseason All-American by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association and finished the season hitting .297/.359/.477 with eight homeruns for the Huskers which earned him honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. He'll likely be drafted again next week.

40) Jon Hooker, RHP, Kentucky
Don't think he signed with the Indians as he played for Bristol in the Appy League in 2001. Currently pitching in his third season with Fargo-Moorhead of the Central League where he has a 2.70 ERA in 3.1 innings of work.

41) Eric Crozier, 1b Norfolk State
Nice find this late in the draft. Broke out in 2002 at Kinston when he hit .326/.423/.508 with nine homeruns in the first half. Key indicators (SLG, BB/K ratio), however, dropped considerably after a promotion to Akron in the second half.. Went to the Arizona Fall League in late 2002 where he also played some outfield. Had a nice spring (six longballs) in 2003 and got off to a fast start with the Aeros before finishing with a .245 average and 19 homeruns. His plate discipline also fell off (51 BB / 92 K) but was still within acceptable levels. Crozier also played with a sore back caused by two hairline fractures in his spine and I'm pretty sure that's still an issue. Promoted to Buffalo in 2004, Crozier is currently hitting .237/.343/.458 with seven homeruns and a solid 19 BB / 27 K ratio for the Bisons. Good athlete but he should (and needs to) show more power for a guy his size playing first base and the outfield. Given all the options the Indians have at those positions, Crozier appears likely to spend the next couple of seasons in Buffalo unless he is moved in a trade or selected in the Rule 5 draft.

42) Silas Ahsui, 3B, JC of the Siskiyous (Cal)
Like Daniel Simpson Day: Whereabouts Unknown (but it looks like he also pitched at Siskiyous).

43) Ron Colvard, RHP, The Citadel
8.31 ERA and 17 walks in 21.2 innings ended his Tribe career in 2001. Strangely enough, he was released yesterday (May 2003) by the Edinburg Roadrunners of the Central League. Re-signed with Edinburg in June 2003 and then was released again in July 2003.

44) Joe Little, LHP, Colorado HS
Did not sign with the Tribe and enrolled at the University of Arizona. Drafted in the 26th round by Tampa Bay in 2003. Currently pitching for Bakersfield in the California League where he has a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts with 46 strikeouts and 26 walks in 50.1 innings. Inconsistant command plauged him in college and it looks like it may be doing the same in the pros.

Junior starting pitcher for the University of Arizona. BA ranks him as the #13 prospect in the state and notes that he has the stuff to pitch in pro ball but has inconsistent command.

45) Mark Carroll, SS, California HS
Did not sign with the Tribe. Junior at Loyola Marymount (.250, 6-for-24) after sitting out last season as a medical redshirt with a shoulder injury.

46) Chris Appuhn, RHP, Nebraska HS
Did not sign with the Tribe. Senior at Creighton via Butler County CC with a 12.60 ERA in five innings this year. Missed part of 2003 with an arm injury but managed to throw a complete game one-hitter against Wichita State.

DRAFT BREW
In their initial mock draft, Baseball America projects the Indians to select Vanderbilt left-hander Jeremy Sowers with the number six overall pick in the first round. Sowers is generally regarded as the best left-hander in the draft as well as one of the most polished and closest to be ready for the major leagues. In 17 appearances (111.1 IP, 93 H, 21 BB, 107 K, .228 BAA) for the Commodores, Sowers has a 2.75 ERA as he leads Vanderbilt to their first College World Series since 1980. FWIW, Peter Gammons recently stated in his latest Diamond Notes column that (in one man's opinion), Sowers will end up with more major league wins than his more highly-regarded right-handed counterparts (Jared Weaver, Jeff Neimann, Justin Verlander, and Phil Humber).

The Indians have also been linked to San Diego high school shortstop Matt Bush who, according to John Mirabelli, is the rare high school player who actually profiles as a major league shortstop. Bush also pitches but projects as an everyday player in the big leagues. Baseball America has noted that the Indians have scouted Bush extensively this spring.

The biggest news of the day, however, resides at the top of the draft where the Padres are apparantly leaning on taking Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew (brother of JD and former Indians first round pick Tim) with the number one overall selection. For most of the spring, the consensus has been that the Padres would take Long Beach right-hander Jared Weaver who has dominated the college ranks (14-1, 1.68, .161 BAA, 128.1 IP, 71 H, 18 BB, 193 K) but comes with the caveat that he does not have the best stuff in the draft although it's still pretty good. If the above is accurate (and it comes from the Padres itself), the question now becomes how far could Weaver fall and could he be available when the Indians are on the clock? The Tribe has been fortunate in the last two drafts to have Jeremy Guthrie and Michael Aubrey fall into their slots. Could it happen a third time? We'll see.
Posted on 6/02/2004

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